Outside the Box
The wealthy are spending, but many consumers are pulling back — and the stock market is fragile
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently declared that the Trump administration was mainly focused on lowering the 10-year U.S. Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y yield. He seems to be accomplishing that goal. Yields are moderating, and the MOVE Index, which measures bond-market volatility, is relatively tame. Bessent is achieving his objective, but at a price — by tanking the U.S. economy.
A recent Wall Street Journal article revealed that the top 10% of Americans account for about half of all consumer spending. The cumulative excess savings of this group rose and remained steady in the wake of massive fiscal and monetary COVID-era stimulus. By contrast, the excess savings of the other 90%of Americans have declined.