I’m already calling it: “Tariffs” is going to be the word of 2025.
Are you already sick of hearing the word?
I think I’ve just about had my fill. But before I completely tune out on this whole tariff thing on my blog, I have to admit, it hasn’t been entirely negative.
While I dislike the turmoil it has caused, I enjoyed the newly acquired knowledge! Guilty as charged: I’m a knowledge enthusiast.
If you are interested in learning more, I highly recommend the video “一口气了解关税” by 小Lin说 and Howard Marks’ memo “Nobody Knows (Yet Again)”
小Lin and her team excel at distilling complex information into digestible pieces. Her clear and engaging presentation makes it accessible even for a layperson like myself.
Howard Marks’ memo, as always, provides comprehensive coverage of the topic and is incredibly insightful. Written in clear, logical prose, it’s a pleasure to read.
How long is long-term?
In my previous post, I emphasised the need for a long-term focus and cautious approach. Now, I want to stress that caution is paramount.
We often hear that “over the long-term, the market always recovers.” And history seems to back that up: the Great Depression, two World Wars, numerous crises – the market has weathered them all.
It’s easy to look back and say, “This too shall pass.” But for those living through those crises, that certainty likely felt far from reality.
So, while the market is highly likely to survive this crisis and recover eventually, it’s no use if we don’t.
If this current situation leads to a prolonged recession, we’re not just talking about stock prices falling. Company earnings and dividends will take a hit too. And if you lose your job in that environment, finding a replacement could be incredibly difficult.
I’m not predicting doom and gloom, nor am I saying don’t invest at all. But I am urging caution. Avoid leverage, ensure you have enough cash reserves to cover at least a year of living expenses, and be prepared that this might last longer than expected.
Upcoming AGMs
If we can weather the current challenges, things will eventually settle into a “new normal.”
As adaptable as humans are, we’re also creatures of habit. Remember the “new normal” during the pandemic? Many of those practices have already reverted to pre-pandemic routines.
One example is the upcoming AGMs, which I’m looking forward to attend. However, the sheer volume scheduled within the next two weeks is causing unavoidable clashes.
It’s a shame that virtual AGMs, a helpful practice during the pandemic, aren’t being offered by any of the companies I hold shares in. This would have significantly reduced scheduling conflicts. While I can’t be in two physical locations at once, I could easily attend multiple virtual meetings.
Ultimately, this is beyond my control. On the bright side, I will still be able to attend most of them, except for United Overseas Bank Ltd (SGX: U11) and Venture Corporation Limited (SGX: V03).
No more tariff post from me. Going to start devouring the annual reports.
Have a good weekend.
The knowledge enthusiast signing off.
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