After a relentless run since the announcement of its Q3 results,, iFAST has overtaken OCBC and becomes the top position of my portfolio!
Not only that, it has also dethroned Best World as the all-time top gainer!
A fast check on a previous post Milestone (one which I could not sustain) written two years ago shows that Micro-Mechanics and Parkwaylife REIT has slipped out of the top 5 and languishing near the edge of top 10. The new entrant is Arista Networks as it has grown tremendously over the past two years.
On the other end, Novocure becomes a new top 5 loser. I am 83% down on this speculative position and given that there is little I can get back from selling it, I decided to just hold on to it.
Is this sustainable?
Back to iFAST. Is the price run sustainable?
I don’t read chart but being in the market long enough tells me that it will be volatile in the short term as it has attracted speculators. So in the short term, anything goes.
Looking further into FY2024 and FY2025, iFAST should have no problem breaching the $10 price if management’s guidance becomes reality. Based on their guidance on their HK market and iFAST Global Bank (IGB), my estimate of its FY2025 EPS is north of 30 cents. EPS for FY2023 should be around 8 cents and so on average, iFAST is going to double its EPS annually for the next two years. Given such growth rate and high visibility, the current valuation is really not that expensive.
The question is what will happen after FY2025?
What will the growth rate be like from FY2025 onwards?
It is still murky in terms of numbers but the growth drivers are there – IBG, Orso e-pension services and not forgetting their other existing businesses. The recent unveiling of iFAST Global Hub.ai in Malaysia is another indication that that they are constantly looking for new opportunities for further growth.
The following was a conversation I had with my colleague two years ago!
It was a banter but then I did think that $50 is a possibility IF iFAST is able to achieve their target of $100b AUA by 2028. Of course, much has changed over the past two years. Increasing geo-political tension, the jump in interest rate due to inflation, and the stalling of China economy make it a lot tougher for iFAST to achieve their target by 2028.
$15 rather than $50, seems be a more probable price in a few years time IF they can continue to execute their 3-year plan well! Nothing is guaranteed in the (business) world. So any negative development will see its price plummets, like it did not that long ago.
Given that iFAST is already the biggest position in my portfolio, I am just going to hold on my current stake. Not selling to take any profit yet and not adding more as I have sufficient exposure to it.
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